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India anticipated a robust year-on-year growth of 9.3% in power generation during the current fiscal year through March 2025, reaching 1,900 TWh, Reuters reported, citing the projections by India's federal power ministry.
This surge represents the fastest pace of growth since at least FY2011-12, driven by scorching heatwaves and a rise in economic activity. Following the pandemic FY2020-21, India's electricity generation has been growing at an average annual rate of approximately 8%, outpacing power demand growth in major global economies.
The Indian weather office has predicted an above-average number of heat-wave days between April and June, which is expected to further boost power consumption and output.
As per the power ministry's projections, this trend is likely to increase the demand for fossil fuel-fired power, projected to grow around 9% year on year and account for over 76% of total output for the second consecutive year.
Coal-fired power generation is expected to rise by 8.9% during the fiscal, surpassing the growth forecast for renewable energy output, Reuters reported. Furthermore, natural gas-fired electricity output is anticipated to increase by 10.5%.
India's renewables output, encompassing solar, wind, small hydro plants, and biomass-generated power, is projected to increase by 8.2% in FY2024-25, reaching 244 TWh. However, this represents the slowest rise in four years, in contrast to China's wind and solar output, which experienced a growth of about 21% in 2023.
Despite India's efforts to expand its renewables capacity to 143.65 GW, the country still falls short of its 2022 target of adding 175 GW of renewable energy to the grid. This has increased India's reliance on coal and complicated its transition towards a low-carbon economy.
Nevertheless, certain clean energy sources are expected to gain momentum this year. Hydropower output, which experienced its sharpest decline in at least 38 years in FY2023-24, is projected to grow by 10.3%, according to the ministry's projections.
India's weather office forecast above-average monsoon rains in 2024, a vital factor in replenishing reservoirs used for electricity generation, as the monsoon contributes nearly 70% of the country's annual rainfall.
Nuclear output is anticipated to rise nearly 16% during the ongoing fiscal, due to the capacity expansion of existing nuclear plants with the addition of new units, marking a departure from years of stagnant growth.
(Writing by Riley Liang Editing by Harry Huo)
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